Ethanol, a low-carbon renewable fuel, currently reduces air-polluting GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions by on average 47-52% when compared with everyday gasoline in light-vehicle transportation. Almost all gasoline today in the US contains 10% Ethanol. A proposal for a 15% Ethanol blend is seeking approval in California. 15%/E15 has the potential for an immediate 50% increase in GHG reductions from Ethanol. Corn, sorghum, and sugarcane are the principle agricultural crops used as feedstock for Ethanol production.
Fossil fuel production is "dangerously out of sync" with climate change. "There is still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5 degrees celcius, but the window of opportunity is rapidly closing. "It is urgent that all remaining public financiers as well as private finance, including commercial banks and asset managers, switch their funding from fossil fuels to renewables. (UNEP Executive Director, Inger Andersen). Aggressive efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions from human activities could avert millions of unnecessary deaths. Climate change is greatest global health threat facing the world in the 21st century, but it is also the greatest opportunity to redefine the social and environmental determinants of health. (Countdown on Health and Climate Change, The Lancet)
The Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), California Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and Oregon Clean Fuels Program have been at the forefront of reducing the carbon footprint in the US's vehicle transportations fuel supply sector. Oregon Governor Kate Brown signed a new law, HB 3051 (May 2021), which gives retailers the ability to offer higher Ethanol blends, like E10+, across the state benefitting consumers and the environment. A study by Air Improvement Resource, Inc. showed that Oregon could reduce GHG emissions by more than 190,000 metric tons annually, the equivalent of removing more than 41,000 vehicles from its roads, by increasing the use of higher blends to E15. Simultaneously, the RFS allows Ethanol to be more affordable for consumers, generates much needed good paying jobs (rural & urban), stimulates rural economic development, and reduces costly foreign exchange oil imports, all of which can be applied to African nations.
The US Energy Information Administration warned in a report released October 6, 2021 population growth will cause emissions from global transportation, a main contributor to climate change, to spike through 2050 unless world leaders can convince countries to change their current laws and regulations. Under current laws, regulations, and most importantly lack of wherewithal, the US and the rest of the world won't meet global emissions reduction targets necessary to curb the worst effects of climate change causing catastrophic global warming. Vehicle transportation accounts for roughly a fourth of global GHG emissions. (E & E News, October 7, 2021).
Electric Vehicles (EV). EV throughout Africa are a non-starter, for decades to come.
- The Brookings Institution-Washington, DC (Africa in Focus, March 29, 2019): Africa's current average of 43 percent access rate to electricity is half of the global access rate of 87 percent. The lack of access to electricity primarily constrains modern economic activities and severely limits adoption of emerging technologies. The cost of electricity throughout Africa is substantial, and much more burdensome than for the rest of the world; the price of powering a refrigerator for a year as a percentage of GDP per capita; 49 percent in Liberia & "0" percent in the US/France/U.K./Japan/Australia (World Bank Development Indicators), highlighting the expensive cost as a barrier to electricity access to the overwhelming majority of African households. Another impediment is repeated and constant electricity outages/blackouts, throughout the day and daily, in almost all African countries, this suggests improving electricity reliability merits keen attention, not just access to electricity.
- Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Agency (Boosting the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, August 3, 2016): Across Africa 500 million people live without electricity. According to recent trends, over 60 percent of Sub-Saharan Africans still lack access to electricity as of 2020.
- South Africa (Parliament - Karpowership Tender, Business Day, August 4, 2021): The government is currently in negotiations under its Emergency Power Procurement Process for the supply of electricity through floating ocean-going barges under a 20-year contract with Turkey's Karpowership generator at a cost of R218bn ($15.5bn).
- The African Development Bank (Light Up and Power Africa, 2019): Over 640 million Africans have no access to electricity, corresponding to an electricity access rate for African countries at just over 40 percent, the lowest in the world. Average per capita consumption of energy in Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) is 180 kWh, compared to 13,000 kWh per capita in the US.
- Power Africa (Obama Administration initiative) & USAID (United States Agency for International Development)(Power Africa 2020 Annual Report): Two out of three people in Sub-Saharan Africa lack access to electricity.
- The above varying statistics show the widespread use of EV in Africa is conservatively far down on the list of priorities.
The analysis by the Argonne National Laboratory and the Renewal Fuels Standards (RFS) on the benefits of Ethanol use: "between 2008 to 2020, the use of biofuels in the US under the RFS has resulted in the savings of 980 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to removing over 200 million cars from the road for one year". Ethanol allows gasoline to be more affordable, generates good-paying jobs, reduces costly/expensive draining foreign exchange dollar oil imports and reduces GHG emissions in accordance with the Paris Climate Accords.
All of the aforementioned can be applied to African Nations.
Reference the U.K. (United Kingdom) government's recent launching of B10 blends beginning in September 2021. (U.K. Introduces New Mandate on Sustainable Petrol Blends, Edie, February 25, 2021) Transport Minister Rachel Maclean has said the introduction of B10 across all UK petrol/gasoline stations, potentially cutting transport CO2 emissions by 750,000 tonnes a year, equivalent to taking 350,000 cars off the road every year is a significant component of the UK's adherence to the Paris Climate Accords.
Another example is India's Secretary of the Department of Food and Distribution expects installed capacity of Ethanol to double by 2025, allowing the country to achieve its 20% blending mandate goal (up from the current 8-8.5% Ethanol blend).
Issues raised in the August 14, 2021 publication of the U.N. (United Nations) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The IPCC report urges immediate and deep reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. The landmark report on the climate crisis shows human influence "unequivocally" causes climate change and its happening faster than previously thought. The U.N. Secretary-General calls the IPCC report "A Code Red for Humanity" with zero-years left to avoid continuing dangerous climate change. President Biden visiting western states (September 13, 2021) promising bold action on climate change, said extreme weather events underscores urgency of action on climate change, "we can't ignore the reality these wildfires are being "supercharged" by climate change, Biden said "it isn't about blue or red states, its about fires, just fires." Extreme weather is pummeling much of the globe, the flooding in Germany causing over 220 lives lost, "the window is closing to avoid further catastrophic outcomes". This is all linked to climate change. Climate change, GHG, is not a distant issue, the evidence is overwhelming. We can change the trajectory and preserve our world for our children, our grand-children.
Concerning children: almost half of the world's 2.2 billion children are at "extremely high risk" of climate shocks-crisis, from greenhouse gases, according to an index published August 20, 2021 by UNICEF, the United Nations children agency. The top 10 countries with children most at risk (health, education, disease) were all in Africa. To avert the worst impacts of the climate crisis, comprehensive and urgent action is required to reduce GHG. (Children's Climate Risk Index, August 2021).
The World Bank published a groundswell report on September 13th, "The Human Face of Climate Change". The report projects 216 million people in six regions could begin migrating in the next 30 years. Climate migration will see peoples, due to extreme devastating weather, such as farmers in Central America who can't get their produce to market due to floods give up their small-farm holdings, a life they've known for many generations, pouring across their borders to southern regions of the US, US allies, and partner countries. The climate change threat will cause people to move to the "nearest stable democracies that adhere to international asylum conventions and are strong economies".
The U.N. Secretary-General has implored government leaders and the private sector to ensure the global COP26 Climate Change Conference in November 2021 is a success in order to "avert climate catastrophe". Scientists in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report say the dangerous global climate causing temperature increase can be stopped with deep and immediate cuts to fossil fuel use, and reduction in greenhouse emissions. John Kerry, President Biden's US Special Envoy for Climate, said of the report "what the world requires now is real action in the 2020's.....time is not on our side", further, Kerry said "all major economies must commit to aggressive climate action during this critical decade".
The feasibility study will analyze various blends, E10,E15, E85, and E100 to be recommended for use in vehicle transportation in the targeted countries: South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, the Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Each National blend chosen would correspond to: the reduction in fossil fuel use/oil imports, reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the net saving in foreign exchange (forex) in comparison to imported & refined oil (fossil fuels) for use in vehicle gasoline. The aforementioned would go a long-way in justifying permanent and expanded use of increased Ethanol blends in Africa.